Simulating Past Dynamics and Assessing Current Status of Markhoz Goat Population on Its Habitat

Document Type: Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 ShahrekordAgriculture and Natural Resources Research Center, Chahar Mahal, Iran

3 Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

Abstract

This study was conducted to collect comprehensive identification about Markhoz goat population and to simulate past dynamics of the population under its living conditions.Census data of the population size and the required parametersfor the simulation modelwere obtained frompublished data or were collected in its habitat in the last 3 years. In this study, past population dynamics and expected loss of genetic diversity in the population were simulated by population viability analysis (PVA) using Vortex modeling program version 10.0.Markhoz breeding goats and population size showed a downward trend on its own habitat. The last known number of breeding does, bucks and total population of the Markhoz goat breed on its habitat were 917, 55 and 1669 heads in 2012. Computed and simulated inbreeding rates (ΔF)were 2.4%and 3.9%, respectively. Simulated Ne for this population was 128 which are near to critical size of 100.Furthermore, the extinction probability (EP) of 0%, stochastic growth rate of -0.1624, losing genetic diversity of 5% and inbreeding of 0.0311 were simulated using the PVA for a past time horizon( from 1996 to 2012). Having considered different parameters and threats with the reliable values and probabilities, PVA model simulated correctly the past period of population dynamics. Based on our findings, 1) future viability and the expected loss of diversity should be estimated under obtained demographic and environmental parameters. 2) different management scenarios should be examined to provide a conservation program.

Keywords


Agricultural Jihad Organization of Kurdistan. (2005). Annual Report Agricultural Jihad Organization of Kurdistan. Present situation of animal husbandry in Kurdistan province, Sanandaj, Iran.
Al-Atiyat R.M. (2009). Estimation probabilities of Jordan indigenous cattle using population viability analysis. Livest. Sci. 123, 121-128.
Bahmani H.R. (1999). Effects of different periods of follicular activity on shedding and characteristics of fiber in Markhoz goat. MS Thesis. Shahid Chamran Univ., Ahvaz, Iran.
Bahmani H.R.,Tahmoorespur M., Aslaminejad A.A., Abbasi M.A. and Ebnabbasi R. (2011). Assessment of demographic, geographical and genetic risks in Markhoz goat population. J. Anim. Vet. Adv. 10(2), 162-168.
Bennewitz J. and Meuwissen T.H.E. (2005). Estimation of extinction probabilities of five German cattle breeds by population viability analysis. J. Dairy Sci. 88, 2949-2961.
Brook B.W., O'Grady J.J., Chapman A.P., Burgman M.A., Akçakaya H.R. and Frankham R. (2000). Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature. 404, 385-387.
European Commission. (2002). European Commission. Commission regulation No. 445/2002 of February 2002. Off. J. 74, 1-34.
Falconer D.S. (1989). Introduction to Quantitative Genetics. Longman, New York.
FAO. (2007). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations the State of the World’s Animal Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, Rom.
Gandini G.C., Ollivier L., Danell B., Distl O., Georgoudis A., Groeneveld E., Martyniuk E., van Arendonk J.A.M. and Wolliams J.A. (2004). Criteria to assess the degree of endangerment of livestock breeds in Europe. Livest. Prod. Sci. 91, 173-182.
Goodman D. (1993). The demography of chance extinction. Pp. 11-34 in Populations for Conservation. M.E. Soule, Ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Henson E.L. (1992). In situ conservation of livestock and poultry.Food Animal Production and Health Paper, Rome.
Krebs C.J. (1994). Ecology: the experimental analysis of distribution and abundance. Harper Collins, New York.
Lacy R.C. (1994). What is population viability analysis? Primate Conserv. 15, 27-33.
Lacy R.C. and Pollak J.P. (2014). Vortex: A Stochastic Simulation of The Extinction Process. Version 10.0. Chicago Zoological Society, Brookfield, Illinois.
Lacy R.C., Miller P.S. and Traylor-Holzer K. (2014). Vortex 10 User’s Manual. IUCN SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group, and Chicago Zoological Society, Apple Valley, Minnesota.
Leroy G., Mary-Huard T., Verrier E., Danvy S., Charvolin E. and Danchin-Burge C. (2013). Methods to estimate effective population size using pedigree data: examples in dog, sheep, cattle and horse. Genet. Select. Evol. 45, 1-11.
Lindenmayer D.B., Burgman M.A., AkcE akaya H.R., Lacy R.C. and Possingham H.P. (1995). A review of the generic computer programs ALEX, RAMAS / space and VORTEX® for modeling the viability of wildlife metapopulations. Ecol. Mod. 82, 161-174.
Meuwissen T. (2009). Genetic management of small populations. Acta Agric. Scandinavica. Section A. Anim. Sci. 59(2), 71-79.
Philipsson J., Zonabend E., Bett R.C. and Okeyo A.M. (2011). Global perspectives on animal genetic resources for sustainable agriculture and food production in the tropics. Pp. 1-32 in Animal Genetics Training Resource. J.M. Ojango, B. Malmfors and A.M. Okeyo, Eds. International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, and Swedish University of Agricultural Science, Uppsala, Sweden.
Rashidi A. (2000). Genetic evaluation of economic traits in Markhoz goat. Ph D. Thesis.Tarbiat Modarres Univ., Tehran, Iran.
Rashidi A., Bishop S.C. and Matika O. (2011). Genetic parameter estimates for pre-weaning performance and reproduction traits in Markhoz goats. Small Rumin. Res. 100, 100-106.
Rasooli H. and Mahmoodi A.M. (1999). Markhoz breeding in Kurdistan province. Research Report Agricultural Jihad Organization of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
Scherf B.D. (1995). World watch list for domestic animal diversity. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Scherf B.D. (2000). World watch list for domestic animal diversity. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Shaffer M.L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. Bioscience.1, 131-134.
Simianer H., Marti S.B., Gibson J., Hanotte O. and Rege J.E.O. (2003). An approach to the optimal allocation of conservation funds to minimize loss of genetic diversity between livestock breeds. Ecol. Econ. 45, 377-392.
Simon D.L. (1999). European approaches to conservation of farm animal genetic resources. Anim. Gen. Res. Info. 25, 79-100.
Thirstrup J.P., Bach L.A., Loeschcke V. and Pertoldi C. (2009). Population viability analysis on domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus).J. Anim. Sci. 87, 3525-3535.
Toro M.A., Meuwissen T.H.E., Fernández J., Shaat I. and Mäki-TanilaA. (2011). Assessing the genetic diversity in small farm animal populations. Animal. 5, 1669-1683.